You may need to stock on warm tea and boxes of tissue. That’s because flu season is just right around the bend.
It’s easy to assume that you’ve been used to this by now because of the recent pandemic. In reality, masks and many other safety measures have helped keep the number of flu cases low. The past two years have actually helped keep the flu at bay, but the next few months might paint a vastly different picture, and that’s because people are starting to go back to their old ways.
Flu experts always say, “If you’ve seen one flu season, you’ve seen one flu season.” This is what Pritish Tosh, MD, said. He is an infectious disease specialist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. “I’ve been studying the flu for over a decade, looking at internal data, external data, public health trends, and every year I’m surprised at what influenza does,” he said.
Flu comes with tons of curveballs. This is why infectious disease specialists don’t make predictions about future flu seasons because it’s also erratic. But Dr. Tosh and others have said that if recent history is any indication, the U.S. can expect a rise in flu activity after two years of lower case counts. So, you need to read further in order to learn more about what you can expect in the near future and the many smart ways to fight flu.
Precautionary Measures during COVID-19 Spread Stopped Flu
The pre-pandemic 2019–2020 flu season was actually quite moderate. Experts say that roughly around 35 million folks in the U.S got the flu. This brought about around 380,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths. This was according to the survey made by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
However, when COVID-19 started to spread in spring 2020, the regular flu essentially didn’t exist at that time. “That was the start of some of the preventative behavioral changes, such as people avoiding crowded places, people social distancing, and that sort of thing,” shared Tosh. “Influenza cases plummeted — like, dropped off a cliff.” For the 2020 to 2021 flu season, the CDC had reported a mere 2,038 reported flu cases, with an estimated 700 death count brought about by flu complications.
The Relaxing of Restrictions Brought a Rise in Flu Cases
The 2021–2022 flu season was a unique one, shared Tosh. As the pandemic restrictions continued to ease and people started to remove masks, they also started gathering indoors and basically getting back to “normal” life, the flu came back with it.
The CDC has made an estimation of around 8 to 13 million people got the flu during the 2021 to 2022 flu. There was also a shocking rise in March and April 2022. This was the first time that the peak time was later than norm since 1982, said Lynnette Brammer, MPH, head of the CDC’s domestic influenza surveillance team. She shared the details in an interview with NBC News. That’s because the peak is around December to February, the CDC noted.
“Overall, the number of hospitalizations was less than we would see in normal previous years [pre-pandemic], but the duration certainly was not something we were used to,” said Tosh.
Evidence Shows a Difficult Season in the Near Future
With very lowering restrictions being practiced everywhere in the U.S. and around the world, infectious disease experts are seeing proof that show how flu is making a comeback.
As a predictor for what’s the future of the U.S. and the other countries found in the northern portion of the hemisphere, scientists study the flu trends happening in the southern portion of the hemisphere. That’s because flu season starts six months before they do. “It’s not always an accurate forecast for our season, but if the same flu strains are dominant, things tend to look about the same,” said Tosh.
Just this summer, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported on the rise of influenza cases in the Southern Hemisphere. This was especially true in temperate zones such as South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.
In July 2022, during Australia’s winter season, flu cases had gone past the cases that had happened prior to the pandemic. The weekly figures were higher than the country’s five-year average. This was reported by the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care.
Aside from the increasing rates, the Australian metrics showed that flu season started last April, which was two months earlier. This also ended earlier than normal. Now, will the same happen to the U.S.? “It’s still difficult to predict,” Tosh said.
Natural Immunity May Have Lowered
People do try to avoid the flu and the lack of exposure to it could be a challenge. This idea may sound too far-fetched, but before the pandemic hit, around 10 percent of the people in the U.S. population would get it, said Tosh. “Those people will get a bounce in their immunity, and there will also be a subsequent bounce in population immunity,” he said. This meant that the community will actually do well with the extra immunity, including those who never got affected with the flu.
Even those exposed but didn’t get it have that advantage because their immune systems create antibodies designed to “remember” the virus and will therefore know how to attack it.
“Because the last few flu seasons have been so mild, there may be as a result a decrease in the population immunity to influenza and so that would favor a worse flu season, but how that will play out is tough to say,” said Tosh.
Changes from the Pandemic May Help
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected everyone’s behaviors and attitudes. This might be good for many when it comes to fighting the flu. “For example, although many people have gone back to in-person work, there are going to be more people working from home than before the pandemic,” Tosh shared.
Although 60 percent of workers in the United States have careers that require them to go out, those who have the choice work from home are still do so when they can. This was according to a February 2022 Pew Research poll. Many are now given this wonderful option.
“We are also seeing fewer people choosing to go into work when they are sick, which is a good thing,” said Tosh. Before the pandemic, people often respected you more when you showed up even when you felt sick. Nowadays, people will urge you to stay home and give you a look of terror if you leave your house as your battling the flu.
“I think you’re going to see fewer sick people show up to work because the social pressure is different, and that change is probably going to last for a long time,” Tosh elaborated.
Hopeful News – This Year’s Flu Vaccine May Match the Present Strains
There’s data and information being released right now and these have been analyzed by the WHO and the CDC. They are now trying to see which strains they need to include in the latest vaccine.
The low number of flu strains in the 2020 to 2021 made the job challenging because the flu vaccine was not a match for the virus, said Tosh. The CDC data showed how it reduced the chance of getting a mild case by a mere 16 percent. Traditionally, the vaccine gave around 40 and 60 percent protection, per the CDC, but can still lower the risk for severe illness and hospitalizations.
Right now, the strains found in the Southern Hemisphere matched to the vaccine, said Tosh. “That doesn’t automatically predict a good match in the Northern Hemisphere, but it’s a good sign,” he added.
Getting Vaccinated Best Fights the Flu and The Complications That Go With It
The best protection against is always going to be the flu vaccine, said Tosh. “We sometimes forget that in a usual flu year, tens of thousands of Americans die from influenza, and a lot of that is due to severe complications, which is often preventable with the vaccine,” he explained.
“One thing that I hope we’ve learned from COVID is that even if you get an infection despite being vaccinated, the severity of the illness decreases. Getting the influenza vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalization and death due to the flu, especially in high-risk people,” said Tosh. The older population, the ones suffering from specific medical conditions, and the young ones are at higher risk. They are the ones who suffer from the complications brought about by the flu, said the CDC.
Aside from getting vaccinated, there are ways to protect yourself. The CDC says to take the following extra steps:
- Avoid close contact with those who are not feeling well.
- Quarantine when you feel the symptoms yourself.
- If you feel like you have the flu, stay home a day more until the fever is completely gone.
- Cover your nose and mouth with when you cough or sneeze and then throw away the tissue.
- Wash your hands often, especially after sneezing or coughing.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
- Disinfect surfaces and objects as often as you can.
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