The cost of eating healthy may soon get even higher as new tariffs are expected to impact the price of many grocery staples. Shoppers already struggling with food inflation could soon face steeper costs for everyday items, particularly those often promoted as part of a healthy diet.
New trade policies are set to impose higher tariffs on a range of imported products. This is expected to hit popular so-called superfoods the hardest—items like coffee, chocolate, and olive oil could soon carry noticeably higher price tags. These goods, prized for their nutritional benefits and culinary uses, are commonly imported and therefore vulnerable to rising trade costs.
But it’s not just fresh or whole foods that will feel the impact. The tariffs are also likely to push up prices on processed food products that use these ingredients, affecting a wide range of items on supermarket shelves.
Food prices have already climbed more than 20 percent since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. With the new tariffs in place, both consumers and retailers may face continued financial strain, potentially reshaping purchasing habits and forcing many to rethink their grocery budgets.
The Rising Prices that Cause Strain
As food costs continue to strain household budgets, the latest wave of U.S. tariffs could make things even more challenging for consumers. On Monday, President Donald Trump announced sweeping new trade measures that place a 10 percent tariff on most imported goods—essentially adding new taxes to a wide range of products entering the United States. The exception, however, is China, which now faces a much steeper 125 percent tariff rate.
While the administration claims these policies are aimed at strengthening American industries, the practical reality for everyday consumers is rising costs on everything from household essentials to specialty food items. Although the administration has announced a 90-day pause before potentially increasing tariffs beyond 10 percent for other trading partners, the immediate impact is already generating concern among food economists and supply chain experts.
Higher Food Prices Seem Inevitable
Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, grocery prices in the U.S. have risen by more than 20 percent. According to David Ortega, PhD, professor and chair in food economics and policy at Michigan State University, the new tariffs are poised to make the situation worse. “The new round of tariffs being imposed now threatens to push food prices even higher. Since the U.S. relies on other countries for many seasonal food products, these costs will ultimately get passed on to American consumers,” Ortega says.
He explains that foods either not grown in the U.S. or those with limited seasonal availability are particularly at risk. “This is especially concerning at a time when consumers are already feeling stretched by higher prices across the board,” Ortega adds.
While these price increases will likely affect a wide variety of foods, they may hit especially hard on items marketed as healthy or nutrient-dense — often referred to as “superfoods.” These include products like chocolate, olive oil, berries, coffee, and nuts, which are already premium-priced in many grocery stores.
Chocolate: From Indulgence to Luxury
Dark chocolate, long celebrated for its antioxidant properties and potential heart health benefits, is one of the foods that may quickly see a price increase. The United States imports much of its chocolate from countries such as the Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Ghana, and Brazil. In fact, major producers like Hershey source cocoa from a diverse set of countries including Indonesia, Nigeria, Colombia, and Peru.
Most of these countries are now subject to the 10 percent baseline tariff, and that cost will almost certainly be passed on to consumers. “Chocolate prices will rise because raw materials like cocoa beans are already expensive and these tariffs add another layer of cost,” Ortega says.
Olive Oil: A Kitchen Staple at Risk
Olive oil, a cornerstone of the Mediterranean diet, is another food item facing cost pressures. Though California does produce olive oil, domestic production meets only about 2 percent of U.S. consumption. Most of the olive oil found in American grocery stores comes from Spain, Italy, and Greece — all countries within the European Union and now subject to the new 10 percent tariff.
“Olive oil prices have gone through the roof,” says Phil Lempert, a well-known food industry analyst, in an interview with NPR. “They’re going to go even higher.”
Lempert emphasizes that this could discourage consumers from purchasing a product long touted for its heart-healthy benefits, pushing them toward less nutritious cooking oils.
Berries: A Small Win for North American Trade
Berries such as strawberries, blueberries, and blackberries are known for their fiber, vitamins, and antioxidant content. Fortunately for American consumers, most of the country’s supply of raspberries and strawberries comes from Mexico, which remains exempt from the new tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
However, about 15 to 20 percent of these berries are sourced from South American countries like Peru and Chile, both of which now face the 10 percent tariff. “This means that a quart of strawberries currently priced at $6 could go up by about 60 cents,” Ortega explains. While this may seem minor, for families who buy these items weekly, the cost adds up over time.
Coffee: The Daily Habit That’s Hard to Replace
Coffee is another item that is difficult to swap out or cut back on, making it particularly sensitive to price hikes. “For many foods or beverages, when the price goes up, we can often find a less expensive alternative. Not so with coffee,” says Dawn Thilmany, PhD, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at Colorado State University.
Although Hawaii produces a small quantity of coffee, more than 80 percent of U.S. roasted coffee imports come from Latin America, especially Brazil and Colombia. With these countries facing the 10 percent tariff, both packaged coffee beans and the cost of a cup of coffee at local cafés are expected to rise.
“This makes it especially difficult for lower-income consumers who already spend a larger percentage of their budget on essentials like food and beverages,” Thilmany adds.
Avocados: One of the Few Exemptions
Avocados have become a symbol of modern healthy eating, celebrated for their unsaturated fats, fiber, and versatility in recipes from guacamole to salads. Fortunately, the U.S. imports nearly 90 percent of its avocados from Mexico, keeping them exempt from the new tariffs—at least for now.
“This is one area where consumers might catch a break,” Ortega notes. However, he warns that changes in trade agreements or future policy shifts could alter this landscape quickly.
Nuts: A Healthy Snack with a Price Tag
Nuts like cashews, walnuts, and almonds are favored for their protein, fiber, and heart health benefits. Many of these, particularly cashews and walnuts, are imported from countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Ivory Coast — all now subject to the tariff.
One bright spot is almonds, about 80 percent of which are grown in California. This makes them less susceptible to price fluctuations due to the new trade measures. “Consumers looking for affordable nuts may want to consider almonds as a more stable option,” Thilmany suggests.
More Than Just Ingredients: Packaging Costs Will Rise Too
Beyond the food itself, tariffs are expected to affect packaging materials. “For example, tariffs on products like aluminum will make items sold in cans more expensive,” says Thilmany. This means that even processed foods and beverages, from canned soups to soft drinks, are likely to see price increases.
Lempert estimates that about half of the 40,000 products typically found in a supermarket could be affected by these tariffs. “Whether it’s the entire product or just an ingredient, the impact will be widespread,” he says.
Who Will Feel the Impact the Most?
Experts agree that the hardest hit will be those who are already food insecure. “These consumers have the least flexibility in their food budgets, and even small increases in cost can have significant consequences,” Thilmany explains.
However, there may be a small silver lining. “The higher costs may inspire some of us to shop smarter and reduce food waste,” Thilmany says. By planning meals more carefully, using leftovers, and buying only what they need, some households may be able to offset the financial impact.
What Happens Next?
With a 90-day pause before any further tariff increases are considered, industry experts and consumer advocacy groups are urging the administration to reconsider the broader economic impact. Until then, shoppers may want to prepare for rising grocery bills and look for ways to make their food dollars go further.
How often do you shop for these kinds of pantry staples?